Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
