A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
